Conflux

N.C. Young

Scott Lawrence

Magnus Rahbek Hansen

As is announced at the Fields Medal ceremony on July 6th. If the award is refused by a winner, they will still be considered to have won for the purposes of resolving this market.

Apr 8, 12:59pm: Unlike Nobel laureates, who might share a prize in different proportions (e.g. if there are three, the awarding committee may opt to award half the award money to one recipient and a quarter to each of the two others), Fields medalists have been treated equally in the past. I do not anticipate this changing, but even if it does, this market will resolve to distribute the pool equally among the winning options.

Elon is single aella is single that’s all you need to make happen.

Bit of a fun experiment. Can the power of No's outweigh the Yes voters? What happens if at the last moment "yes voters" make a push and overshoot it?

This is Manifold's hoarde vs alliance, which side are you on?
Closes midnight at the end of the month.

After my Bahamas trip is over, @noumena and I will be living together for a week in New York in order to determine whether we're compatible enough to share a room. Details:
- Regardless of the outcome, we've committed to at least being housemates in https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-we-successfully-rent-the-4bed1 for at least a month, but this market only resolves yes if we decide to be roommates
- I'd bet (9:1) that Rachel is my gf.
- I've been with Rachel for months, in some sense, but the total time we've spent together is < 1 week total

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8980/marcos-wins-2022-philippine-election/

This market will resolve to Yes if, on May 23rd, 2022, Manchester City Football Club occupies the #1 position in the Premier League table.

Initial probability based on the FiveThirtyEight estimate: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

Resolution source: https://www.premierleague.com/tables

I found this comprehensive-looking list: https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2802319331
Resolves equally to every civilisation released next.

Manifold Markets

The vehicle must be on the market and available for purchase, not just publicly announced.

See this related article: https://electrek.co/2021/01/29/tesla-electric-van-coming-batteries/

A market forevery question

A market for
every question